A Stock Cycles Calculator
Key Insight: Two investors can experience the exact same average annual return, yet end up with dramatically different final portfolio values. The sequence of returns matters enormously.
This calculator demonstrates how early losses can actually benefit long-term investors more than early gains, because you're buying more shares when prices are low.
How it works: Enter returns for any years you want (1 to 29 years). Leave the rest blank, and the calculator automatically fills them with whatever return is needed to achieve a 6.5% average over 30 years. You can also import actual historical returns from the U.S. stock market record!
Compare how different return patterns affect your final portfolio value.
When you're regularly contributing to your portfolio, early losses are actually beneficial. Here's why:
Try it yourself: Import historical returns from 1960-1969 into Scenario A's first 10 years, and 1970-1979 into Scenario B's first 10 years. See how different decades of actual market performance affect your final wealth!
| Year | Contribution | Balance Start | Return % | Gain/Loss | Balance End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10,000 | $10,000 | 10.79% | $1,079 | $11,079 |
| 2 | $10,000 | $21,079 | 15.63% | $3,295 | $24,374 |
| 3 | $10,000 | $34,374 | -21.95% | $-7,545 | $26,829 |
| 4 | $10,000 | $36,829 | -34.82% | $-12,824 | $24,005 |
| 5 | $10,000 | $34,005 | 26.41% | $8,981 | $42,986 |
| 6 | $10,000 | $52,986 | 18.27% | $9,680 | $62,666 |
| 7 | $10,000 | $72,666 | -12.42% | $-9,025 | $63,641 |
| 8 | $10,000 | $73,641 | -1.07% | $-788 | $72,853 |
| 9 | $10,000 | $82,853 | 9.07% | $7,515 | $90,368 |
| 10 | $10,000 | $100,368 | 21.62% | $21,700 | $122,067 |
| 11 | $10,000 | $132,067 | -13.30% | $-17,565 | $114,502 |
| 12 | $10,000 | $124,502 | 17.59% | $21,900 | $146,402 |
| 13 | $10,000 | $156,402 | 17.53% | $27,417 | $183,820 |
| 14 | $10,000 | $193,820 | 2.30% | $4,458 | $198,277 |
| 15 | $10,000 | $208,277 | 27.53% | $57,339 | $265,616 |
| 16 | $10,000 | $275,616 | 16.38% | $45,146 | $320,762 |
| 17 | $10,000 | $330,762 | 1.83% | $6,053 | $336,815 |
| 18 | $10,000 | $346,815 | 12.00% | $41,618 | $388,433 |
| 19 | $10,000 | $398,433 | 26.21% | $104,429 | $502,862 |
| 20 | $10,000 | $512,862 | -7.46% | $-38,260 | $474,603 |
| 21 | $10,000 | $484,603 | 27.06% | $131,133 | $615,736 |
| 22 | $10,000 | $625,736 | 4.67% | $29,222 | $654,958 |
| 23 | $10,000 | $664,958 | 7.31% | $48,608 | $713,566 |
| 24 | $10,000 | $723,566 | -1.32% | $-9,551 | $714,015 |
| 25 | $10,000 | $724,015 | 34.11% | $246,962 | $970,977 |
| 26 | $10,000 | $980,977 | 19.30% | $189,329 | $1,170,306 |
| 27 | $10,000 | $1,180,306 | 30.98% | $365,659 | $1,545,964 |
| 28 | $10,000 | $1,555,964 | 26.90% | $418,554 | $1,974,519 |
| 29 | $10,000 | $1,984,519 | 17.88% | $354,832 | $2,339,351 |
| 30 | $10,000 | $2,349,351 | -12.08% | $-283,802 | $2,065,549 |
| Year | Contribution | Balance Start | Return % | Gain/Loss | Balance End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10,000 | $10,000 | -13.30% | $-1,330 | $8,670 |
| 2 | $10,000 | $18,670 | 17.59% | $3,284 | $21,954 |
| 3 | $10,000 | $31,954 | 17.53% | $5,602 | $37,556 |
| 4 | $10,000 | $47,556 | 2.30% | $1,094 | $48,649 |
| 5 | $10,000 | $58,649 | 27.53% | $16,146 | $74,796 |
| 6 | $10,000 | $84,796 | 16.38% | $13,890 | $98,685 |
| 7 | $10,000 | $108,685 | 1.83% | $1,989 | $110,674 |
| 8 | $10,000 | $120,674 | 12.00% | $14,481 | $135,155 |
| 9 | $10,000 | $145,155 | 26.21% | $38,045 | $183,200 |
| 10 | $10,000 | $193,200 | -7.46% | $-14,413 | $178,787 |
| 11 | $10,000 | $188,787 | 27.06% | $51,086 | $239,873 |
| 12 | $10,000 | $249,873 | 4.67% | $11,669 | $261,542 |
| 13 | $10,000 | $271,542 | 7.31% | $19,850 | $291,392 |
| 14 | $10,000 | $301,392 | -1.32% | $-3,978 | $297,414 |
| 15 | $10,000 | $307,414 | 34.11% | $104,859 | $412,272 |
| 16 | $10,000 | $422,272 | 19.30% | $81,499 | $503,771 |
| 17 | $10,000 | $513,771 | 30.98% | $159,166 | $672,937 |
| 18 | $10,000 | $682,937 | 26.90% | $183,710 | $866,647 |
| 19 | $10,000 | $876,647 | 17.88% | $156,744 | $1,033,392 |
| 20 | $10,000 | $1,043,392 | -12.08% | $-126,042 | $917,350 |
| 21 | $10,000 | $927,350 | -13.26% | $-122,967 | $804,383 |
| 22 | $10,000 | $814,383 | -23.80% | $-193,823 | $620,560 |
| 23 | $10,000 | $630,560 | 26.38% | $166,342 | $796,902 |
| 24 | $10,000 | $806,902 | 7.70% | $62,131 | $869,033 |
| 25 | $10,000 | $879,033 | 1.72% | $15,119 | $894,153 |
| 26 | $10,000 | $904,153 | 12.79% | $115,641 | $1,019,794 |
| 27 | $10,000 | $1,029,794 | 2.04% | $21,008 | $1,050,802 |
| 28 | $10,000 | $1,060,802 | -40.25% | $-426,973 | $633,829 |
| 29 | $10,000 | $643,829 | 23.77% | $153,038 | $796,867 |
| 30 | $10,000 | $806,867 | 12.10% | $97,631 | $904,498 |